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For a brief period, the former US president appeared to embrace a firm stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing threats of "severe ramifications" during the summer if Vladimir Putin carried on blocking truce talks, he eventually imposed major penalties on Russia's two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move seriously impacted the Russian leader's capability to support his military invasion in Ukraine.

But, through his latest detailed peace plan for the conflict, reportedly developed by US and Russian diplomats excluding Ukrainian or EU input, Trump has clearly gone back to his pro-Putin stance.

Rewarding Military Action

The former president's plan would effectively favor the Russian leader for invading Ukraine while leaving the country's democracy in jeopardy. Despite bold proclamations that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be upheld", significant aspects of the initiative in reality compromise that same sovereignty. What represents a Moscow's wish would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his corporate background, Trump seems to consider the war as a simple border issue, like ceding Russia a part of Ukraine's territory will appease the president. But, Putin's war is not merely about occupying a destroyed area of industrial-devastated territory in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's apparent intention to weaken it so it stops serves as an attractive standard for the Russia's population of the responsible governance that his increasing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Land Concessions

While keeping in place the already separated oblasts of these areas, Trump's proposal would require Ukraine to abandon the whole Donetsk province. In addition to rewarding the Russian Federation with territory that its military have been failed to occupy in exceeding a lengthy period of warfare, this surrender would render Ukrainian defenses dangerously compromised.

The area is the site of Ukraine's highly-touted "stronghold system", the entrenched protective structures that are a critical impediment to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, giving Putin a unobstructed path to Kyiv should he later choose to restart the war.

Armed Forces Limitations

Then, in a step that would facilitate additional fighting easier for the Russian military, the plan would require Ukraine to reduce the size of its troops from their current large number personnel to a maximum of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's plan places no such constraints on Russian forces.

In what appears as a concession to Putin's attempts to characterize the nation's chosen by the people government as extremists, the proposal states: "Every extremist doctrine and actions must be opposed and banned." Apparently to underscore this element, it insists that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the proposal places no obligation that Putin risk his regime by allowing votes in his own country.

Defense Commitments

To be sure, the plan makes the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "establish in regulation its position of peaceful relations towards Europe and Ukraine". Yet considering that Putin has breached equivalent accords in the history – including the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government committed to recognize Ukraine's sovereignty in return for giving up its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow promised to a halt in fighting and a handback of seized areas in the Donbas to the government – why should the international community trust Putin this time?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on external security guarantees. Although the proposal warns of a "immediate joint armed reaction" if the Russian Federation renew its invasion, and includes that "Ukraine will receive strong security guarantees", the details vary from fuzzy to concerning. The initiative would not only block Ukraine Nato membership but also prohibit Nato members from positioning military personnel on Ukraine's soil, thus blocking the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly headed by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to stop Putin from replenishing his reduced military, re-equipping, and reinvading.

International Response

A separate side agreement according to sources would offer Ukraine with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any later "significant, planned, and sustained military assault" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an act of war jeopardizing the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This implies a defense action. However unlike a capable Ukrainian military – Ukraine's most reliable defense against additional Russian aggression – the credibility of the parallel accord would rely on the dedication of Western powers, such as the US administration, to react militarily to Putin's hostilities, a response they have {not