Moving from Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro.

A surprise raid on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to unfold: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”