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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."